Climate change is already having an impact
on people, nature and the one shared home
we all rely on. This must be the year world
leaders put our planet first.
In this report, we highlight 12 species that are experiencing
the devastating impacts of climate change, and we outline
how their future depends on humanity’s urgent response
to the environmental crisis. Our list includes mammals,
reptiles, amphibians, insects, birds, plants and corals – and
it covers impacts across the globe, from here in the UK to
the frozen wilderness of Antarctica and deep in the Amazon
rainforest.
Despite raised ambitions from political and business leaders
to tackle climate change, the world is not on track to prevent
catastrophic damage. Current climate pledges known as
nationally determined contributions, or NDCs, and net-zero
targets for 2050 will not deliver the Paris Agreement goal of
limiting global warming to 1.5°C. In fact, they are projected
to lead to a temperature rise of 2.4°C above pre-industrial
levels by the end of the century.
And there is hope. The UK’s presidency of the UN climate
conference known as COP26, later this year, provides a
unique opportunity for us to lead the way. We must act to
ensure we can keep global temperature rise to 1.5°C and
make nature our ‘climate hero’.
气候变化已经产生影响 关于人、自然和共享家园 我们都依赖。这一定是世界的一年 领导人将我们的星球放在首位。
在本报告中，我们重点介绍了正在经历的 12 个物种
气候变化的破坏性影响，我们概述
他们的未来如何取决于人类的紧急反应
对环境危机。我们的名单包括哺乳动物，
爬行动物、两栖动物、昆虫、鸟类、植物和珊瑚——以及
它涵盖了从英国这里到全球的影响
南极洲的冰冻荒野和亚马逊河深处雨林。
尽管政界和商界领袖雄心勃勃
为应对气候变化，世界并未走上预防之路
灾难性的破坏。当前的气候承诺被称为
国家自主贡献（NDC）和净零
2050 年的目标将无法实现《巴黎协定》的目标
将全球变暖限制在 1.5°C。事实上，它们是预计的
导致温度比工业化前高出 2.4°C
到本世纪末的水平。
还有希望。英国担任联合国气候主席国
今年晚些时候召开的名为 COP26 的会议提供了一个
为我们带路的独特机会。我们必须采取行动
确保我们能够将全球气温上升控制在 1.5°C 和
让大自然成为我们的“气候英雄”。
The world’s average surface temperature has risen by around 1°C since the Industrial Revolution. The impacts of this on people and nature are already measurable and will get a lot worse if we do not act urgently.
The impacts are felt everywhere – from tropical forests to remote mountaintops; from wetlands to the icy wilderness of the polar regions. We are experiencing more extreme events such as prolonged heatwaves and wildfires, warmer oceans and back-to-back coral bleaching events, retreating glaciers and rising sea levels.
Climate change has brought changes to all types of animal and plant life on every continent. Higher temperatures can shift the suitable range for species, disrupt the timing of their life cycle, and increase the frequency and intensity of extreme events that directly affect their natural habitats. These risks will all
escalate as global temperatures rise.
Most species have evolved to survive in a particular environmental niche – and their historical distribution reflects this. Some may be able to adapt to higher heat and altered rainfall patterns. But others will need to shift their range to follow their preferred climates – typically moving to find more suitable cooler homes towards the poles and up hills. In the UK, the ranges of many species, including birds, butterflies, moths and dragonflies, have already shifted northwards over the last four decades. In the ocean, changing conditions have contributed to the range shifts of highly mobile species. A rapid shift in the distribution of the northeast Atlantic mackerel stock towards Greenland waters was seen earlier this century. But other species are unable to move because their habitat is too rare or fragmented, or too hard to reach because they face natural or human-made barriers.
In some parts of the world certain species may, at least temporarily, appear to do better – with more food available or as previously inhospitable areas become more suitable for colonisation. Threats to species are often complex,
meaning different species, and even different populations of the same species, can display different responses. Shifts in temperature affect habitat and food availability dramatically for different species, including exerting a powerful influence over populations and distribution of Antarctica’s penguin species.
In west Antarctica, rapid warming has caused sea ice extent to decrease rapidly. As a result, populations of the ice-adapted Adélie penguin in this region are generally declining, whereas populations of the ice-averse gentoo penguin are increasing.
Increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are putting wildlife under additional pressure, leading to high mortality and reproductive failures. For example, extreme heatwaves have caused massive die-offs in flying fox populations in Australia.
自工业革命以来，世界平均地表温度上升了约 1°C。这对人类和自然的影响已经是可以衡量的，如果我们不立即采取行动，将会变得更糟。
影响无处不在——从热带森林到偏远的山顶；从湿地到极地冰冷的荒野。我们正在经历更多极端事件，例如长时间的热浪和野火、变暖的海洋和连续的珊瑚白化事件、冰川退缩和海平面上升。
气候变化给各大洲所有类型的动植物生命带来了变化。较高的温度会改变物种的适宜范围，扰乱其生命周期的时间安排，并增加直接影响其自然栖息地的极端事件的频率和强度。这些风险都将
随着全球气温升高而升级。
大多数物种已经进化为在特定的环境利基中生存——它们的历史分布反映了这一点。有些人可能能够适应更高的热量和改变的降雨模式。但其他人将需要改变他们的范围以适应他们喜欢的气候——通常是为了寻找更合适的凉爽家园，靠近两极和上山。在英国，包括鸟类、蝴蝶、飞蛾和蜻蜓在内的许多物种的分布范围在过去四年中已经向北移动。在海洋中，不断变化的条件导致高度流动物种的范围变化。本世纪初，东北大西洋鲭鱼种群向格陵兰水域的分布迅速转变。但其他物种无法移动，因为它们的栖息地太稀有或支离破碎，或者因为面临自然或人为的障碍而难以到达。
在世界的某些地方，某些物种可能，至少是暂时的，表现得更好——有了更多的食物，或者以前不适宜居住的地区变得更适合殖民。对物种的威胁往往很复杂，
意思是不同的物种，甚至同一物种的不同种群，可以表现出不同的反应。温度变化显着影响不同物种的栖息地和食物供应，包括对南极企鹅物种的种群和分布产生强大影响。
在南极洲西部，快速变暖导致海冰范围迅速减少。结果，该地区适应冰的阿德利企鹅的数量普遍下降，而厌恶冰的巴布亚企鹅的数量正在增加。
极端天气事件的频率和强度的增加给野生动物带来了额外的压力，导致高死亡率和繁殖失败。例如，极端热浪已导致澳大利亚飞狐种群大量死亡。
Climate change can make existing habitats unsuitable
and reduce the availability of natural resources such
as water. When habitat and food become scarcer, wild
animals may turn to livestock and crops, increasing the
risk of conflict between people and wildlife.
Climate change is a threat to people and nature, and it
exacerbates existing stresses. Many species cannot cope
with the current rate of climate change, especially when
their resilience has already been reduced by habitat
destruction, overexploitation, disease, pollution and
competition from invasive species. The UN estimates
that one million species are threatened with extinction
globally, many in the coming decades.
We have now entered a sixth mass extinction, and
climate change is accelerating the crisis. The Bramble
Cay melomys was the first species of mammal wiped out
because of human-caused climate change. The small
rat-like rodent, which was endemic to a tiny island at the
northern tip of the Great Barrier Reef, saw its habitat
destroyed by sea-level rise. More species will be pushed
to the brink because of climate change.
气候变化会使现有的栖息地变得不适合并减少自然资源的可用性，例如作为水。当栖息地和食物变得稀缺时，野生动物可能会变成牲畜和农作物，从而增加人与野生动物发生冲突的风险。气候变化是对人类和自然的威胁，它加剧现有压力。许多物种无法应对以目前的气候变化速度，尤其是当栖息地已经降低了它们的复原力
破坏、过度开发、疾病、污染和来自入侵物种的竞争。联合国估计一百万个物种面临灭绝的威胁在全球范围内，许多将在未来几十年内出现。我们现在已经进入了第六次大灭绝，并且气候变化正在加速危机。荆棘
Cay melomys是第一个灭绝的哺乳动物因为人为造成的气候变化。小的类似老鼠的啮齿类动物，它是地球上一个小岛上的特有物种大堡礁北端，看到了它的栖息地
被海平面上升摧毁。更多物种将被推送因气候变化而濒临崩溃。
The climate crisis is not simply about the disappearance
of certain animals and plants from particular places,
but about profound changes to ecosystems that provide
vital services to hundreds of millions of people. Half of
the world’s warm-water coral reefs have already been
lost, with impacts on other marine life and coastal
communities. Sea levels have risen by 16cm since the
start of the 20th century, and the continuing trend
threatens the existence of entire communities in coastal
and low-lying areas.
The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme events
such as heatwaves, floods, droughts and wildfires driven
by climate change is having a devastating effect on
food security and livelihoods, with losses of crops and
livestock production. Least developed countries are the
worst affected.
With 2021 a critical year for climate action, world leaders
must step up to deliver on ambitious targets that will
put our planet on the path to recovery – protecting the
health, wealth and security of future generations. These
actions must be achieved without leaving anyone behind.
气候危机不仅仅是关于消失来自特定地方的某些动植物，但关于生态系统的深刻变化为数亿人提供重要服务。一半世界上的温水珊瑚礁已经消失，对其他海洋生物和沿海生物造成影响社区。自今年以来海平面上升了 16 厘米20世纪初，以及持续的趋势威胁沿海地区整个社区的存在和低洼地区。极端事件的频率和强度不断增加
例如热浪、洪水、干旱和野火驱动气候变化正在对粮食安全和生计，作物损失和畜牧生产。最不发达国家是
受影响最严重。2021 年是气候行动的关键一年，世界各国领导人必须加紧实现雄心勃勃的目标让我们的星球走上复苏之路——保护地球子孙后代的健康、财富和安全。这些必须在不让任何人落后的情况下实现行动。
WHY DOES 1.5ºC MATTER?
Half a degree might sound insignificant, but the projected harm to unique and threatened systems increases enormously between a 1.5°C limit and higher temperature rises. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C highlights many differences in climate risks at 1.5°C, 2°C and higher levels of warming on land and in the oceans.
Risks from droughts and heavy precipitation events are projected to increase. Vulnerable communities who depend on agricultural or coastal livelihoods are likely to suffer impacts and increasingly face food insecurity. They will clearly benefit from a strict implementation of the Paris targets. For example, at 1.5°C, there will still be reductions in the yields of maize, rice, wheat and other cereal crops, but they are projected to be smaller than at 2°C, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, south-east Asia and Latin America.
半度可能听起来微不足道，但在 1.5°C 的限制和更高的温度升高之间，对独特和受威胁系统的预计危害会大大增加。 这政府间气候变化专门委员会 (IPCC) 关于全球升温 1.5°C 的特别报告强调了 1.5°C、2°C 和更高升温水平下气候风险的许多差异在陆地和海洋中。
预计干旱和强降水事件的风险将会增加。 依赖农业或沿海生计的弱势社区可能会受到影响并日益面临粮食不安全。 他们显然将从严格执行巴黎目标中受益。 例如，在 1.5°C 时，玉米的产量仍然会下降，稻、小麦和其他谷类作物，但预计低于 2°C，特别是在撒哈拉以南非洲、东南亚和拉丁美洲。
Low-lying and coastal communities are highly vulnerable to sea-level rise. Global sea-level rise by 2100 is projected to be 10cm higher at 2°C than if we keep to 1.5°C. Such a difference would expose up to 10 million more people to risks.
A half-degree increase would also permanently damage a variety of ecosystems and lead to the extinction of even more species across the globe. For example, warm-water coral reefs are projected to decline by a further 70-90% at 1.5°C warming but would be virtually lost under a 2°C scenario. If emissions keep rising as they are today, all known emperor penguin colonies will decline and most will be quasiextinct by the end of the century – but if we keep to 1.5°C their future can be secured. A global assessment analysed the potential effects of climate change on the range sizes of more than 105,000 terrestrial species.
It found that keeping temperature rise to 1.5°C rather than 2°C would halve the proportion of plants and vertebrates that are projected to lose more than 50% of their geographical range. Under the same scenario, the number of insects facing such range loss would decrease by two-thirds.Time is of the essence. To save humanity’s crucial life-support systems, the global community must act now. If we fail to limit global warming to 1.5°C, we will face even greater risks of a global decline of functioning ecosystems and an irreversible and catastrophic loss of species.
低洼和沿海社区极易受到海平面上升的影响。 到 2100 年，全球海平面上升预计在 2°C 时比保持在 1.5°C 时高 10 厘米。 这种差异将使多达 1000 万人面临风险。
半度的升高还将永久性地破坏各种生态系统，并导致全球更多物种的灭绝。 例如，温水珊瑚礁
预计在升温 1.5°C 时将进一步下降 70-90%，但在 2°C 情景下几乎会消失。 如果排放量像今天这样继续上升，所有已知的帝企鹅
到本世纪末，殖民地将会减少，大部分将几乎灭绝——但如果我们保持在 1.5°C，它们的未来就可以得到保障。
一项全球评估分析了气候变化对超过 105,000 种陆地物种分布范围的潜在影响。
研究发现，将温度上升保持在 1.5°C 而不是 2°C 将使预计将失去 50% 以上地理范围的植物和脊椎动物的比例减半。 在同样的情况下，面临这种射程损失的昆虫数量将减少三分之二。时间至关重要。 为了拯救人类至关重要的生命支持系统，全球
社区必须立即行动。 如果我们不能将全球变暖限制在 1.5°C，我们将面临更大的全球气温下降风险
正常运转的生态系统和不可逆转的灾难性物种损失。
GLOBAL STATE OF PLAY
Greenhouse gas emissions from human activities are the dominant cause of the climate crisis. The main drivers are carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels for energy (for example in industry, transport and to heat buildings) and from releasing carbon stored in vegetation and soils (for example through deforestation to clear land for agriculture). Agriculture also contributes large amounts of the greenhouse gases methane and nitrous oxide.
To tackle climate change and its negative impacts, 196 countries (together with the EU) adopted the Paris Agreement on climate change in 2015. They agreed to pursue efforts to limit global temperature rises to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. All pathways to 1.5°C include rapid and deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, together with protecting and
enhancing natural carbon sinks such as forests, soils and wetlands.
However, despite political statements and
action to date, the world is not on track to slow
climate change. Short-term country climate
pledges – known as nationally determined
人类活动产生的温室气体排放是气候危机的主要原因。主要驱动因素是燃烧化石燃料产生的二氧化碳（例如在工业、运输和供暖建筑中）以及释放储存在植被和土壤中的碳（例如通过砍伐森林为农业开垦土地）。农业还产生大量温室气体甲烷和一氧化二氮。
为应对气候变化及其负面影响，196 个国家（连同欧盟）于 2015 年通过了关于气候变化的《巴黎协定》。他们同意努力将全球气温上升限制在工业化前水平之上 1.5°C。达到 1.5°C 的所有途径都包括快速和深度减少温室气体排放，以及保护和加强森林、土壤和湿地等自然碳汇。
然而，尽管有政治声明和迄今为止的行动，世界并未走上放缓的轨道气候变化。短期国家气候承诺——被称为国家决定
1. ATLANTIC PUFFIN
Sometimes called the ‘clown of the sea’, the Atlantic puffin may not delight bird lovers for much longer if ocean temperatures continue to rise. They lead a solitary life at sea, feeding and travelling. They return to land for a few months per year to breed. The UK provides vital nesting habitat for them in the summer.
Europe is home to over 90% of the Atlantic puffin population, but their numbers have been crashing in the last two decades.
Puffins face multiple threats. Overfishing has already severely reduced their food source. And since they are diving to catch fish, puffins are at risk of becoming entangled themselves in fishing gear.
Now climate change is driving drastic declines in puffin and other seabird numbers. Global warming leads to more severe and frequent weather events, which affects the puffins that spend most of their time at sea. High winds and heavy rainfall affect the birds’ ability to dive and find food. During the breeding season, extreme weather chills the eggs while storms destroy nests with chicks.
All elements of the marine ecosystem are inter-connected, and rising sea surface temperatures disrupt the entire marine food web the birds rely on for their survival. Puffins eat a mix of small pelagic fish, such as herrings, sprats, capelins and sandeels. Sandeels eat tiny crustaceans called copepods that
form dense swarms in certain places at specific times.Timing is everything, and sandeel larvae conveniently hatch close to the start of one such bloom in the spring. With plenty of food to eat, the baby sandeels can grow and become the meal of their top predators, puffins, who feed the nutritious fish to their growing chicks during nesting season.
Warmer waters trigger this food chain to be out of sync. In what scientists call a ‘trophic mismatch’, copepods are blooming before sandeels hatch. This results in fewer sandeels for the puffins to feed their young, causing the failure of entire colonies. Between 2000 and 2016, the mismatch between sandeels and copepods was estimated to be 19.8 days, and this will increase with higher temperatures. If we want to keep puffins and other seabird species afloat, we need to act now and limit the rise in global temperatures.
大西洋海雀
有时被称为“海洋小丑”，如果海洋温度继续上升，大西洋海雀可能不会让鸟类爱好者高兴更长时间。他们在海上过着孤独的生活，觅食和旅行。他们每年返回陆地几个月进行繁殖。英国在夏季为它们提供了重要的筑巢栖息地。
欧洲拥有超过 90% 的大西洋海雀种群，但在过去的二十年里，它们的数量一直在急剧下降。
海雀面临多重威胁。过度捕捞已经严重减少了他们的食物来源。而且由于它们正在潜水捕鱼，海雀有被渔具缠住的风险。
现在气候变化正在推动海雀和其他海鸟数量的急剧下降。全球变暖导致更严重和频繁的天气事件，这影响了大部分时间在海上度过的海雀。大风和强降雨会影响鸟类潜水和寻找食物的能力。在繁殖季节，极端天气会使鸡蛋变冷，而暴风雨会破坏小鸡的巢穴。
海洋生态系统的所有要素都是相互关联的，不断上升的海面温度扰乱了鸟类赖以生存的整个海洋食物网。海雀吃各种小型中上层鱼类，如鲱鱼、鲱鱼、毛鳞鱼和沙鳗。 Sandeels吃称为桡足类的微小甲壳类动物在特定的时间在特定的地方形成密集的群体。时间就是一切，沙鳗幼虫在春季开花的时候很容易孵化。有了充足的食物可以吃，小沙鳗可以成长并成为它们的顶级掠食者海雀的食物，它们在筑巢季节将营养丰富的鱼喂给正在成长的小鸡。
温暖的海水会导致这条食物链失去同步。在科学家所说的“营养不匹配”中，桡足类在沙鳗孵化之前就已经开花了。这导致海雀喂养幼崽的沙鳗数量减少，导致整个殖民地的失败。在 2000 年到 2016 年之间，沙鳗和桡足类之间的不匹配估计为 19.8 天，并且随着温度的升高而增加。如果我们想让海雀和其他海鸟物种继续生存，我们需要立即采取行动，限制全球气温上升。
2. MOUNTAIN HARE
WRONG COAT FOR THE CLIMATE
As the UK’s only true native hares, mountain hares living in the Highlands of Scotland have evolved a brilliant strategy to escape predators. In the summer, they display a brown pelage that blends in with the environment. In October, they moult and switch to a white coat that keeps them well camouflaged in
the snow. Then in March, they moult again and revert back to their summer outfit. But the strategy is not working so well in a warming climate. Annual snow cover in the Scottish Highlands has declined by over 37 days on average between 1960 and 2016.
If mountain hares could adapt to the change by moulting later in the autumn and earlier in the spring they would better match the change in snow cover.So far, the evidence shows this hasn’t been happening, as climate change is occurring at a faster rate than the hares can adapt. They still keep their white coat on for roughly the same amount of time in the winter.
This means the hares’ camouflage is now mismatched to their environment for more than a month each year longer compared to 1960. During that time, they exhibit striking white fur against a snowless background, which leaves them more vulnerable to predators who can spot them more easily on the dark mountainside.
The mismatch is dangerous not just for hares in Scotland: it is a risk for many species that rely on seasonal changes in coat as an adaptation to avoid predators. In North America, a study showed that the weekly survival of snowshoe hares decreased by up to 14% when they were mismatched against their surroundings. Mountain hare numbers have also fallen in parts of Norway, linked to increased predation in areas with fewer snow days.
The climate change threat is not limited to a coat colour mismatch. Hares thrive in cold conditions. Warmer temperatures will push them to move higher, into smaller and more fragmented territories. Researchers who have been tracking hares in the Swiss Alps have found that their alpine habitat will reduce by around 35% by 2100. Warmer weather at a critical time of year will shrink the environment suitable for successful reproduction.
It is essential to limit further temperature increases to maintain suitable hare habitat and so that the animals get more time to develop a climateadapted wardrobe.
山兔
气候错误的外套
作为英国唯一真正的本土野兔，生活在苏格兰高地的山地野兔已经进化出一种出色的策略来逃避掠食者。在夏天，它们呈现出与环境融为一体的棕色毛皮。十月，它们换羽并换上一件白色外套，让它们在雪。然后在三月，他们再次蜕皮并恢复他们的夏季服装。但该策略在气候变暖的情况下效果不佳。从 1960 年到 2016 年，苏格兰高地的年积雪平均减少了 37 天以上。
如果山兔能够通过在秋季晚些时候和春季早些时候换羽来适应这种变化，它们将更好地适应积雪的变化。到目前为止，证据表明这还没有发生，因为气候变化正在以更快的速度发生速度超出了野兔的适应能力。在冬天，他们仍然穿着白色外套的时间大致相同。
这意味着与 1960 年相比，野兔的伪装现在与环境不匹配的时间比 1960 年增加了一个多月。在那段时间里，它们在无雪的背景下展现出引人注目的白色皮毛，这使它们更容易受到更容易发现它们的捕食者的攻击轻松地在黑暗的山腰上。
这种不匹配不仅对苏格兰的野兔来说是危险的：对于许多依靠外套的季节性变化来适应躲避捕食者的物种来说也是一种风险。在北美，一项研究表明，当雪鞋野兔与周围环境不匹配时，它们的每周存活率下降了 14%。挪威部分地区的山兔数量也有所下降，这与雪天较少地区的捕食活动增加有关。
气候变化威胁不仅限于毛色不匹配。野兔在寒冷的环境中茁壮成长。气温升高将推动它们向更高处移动，进入更小、更分散的地区。一直在瑞士阿尔卑斯山追踪野兔的研究人员发现，到 2100 年，它们的高山栖息地将减少约 35%。一年中关键时期的温暖天气将缩小适合成功繁殖的环境。
必须限制进一步的温度升高以维持合适的野兔栖息地，以便动物有更多时间来开发适应气候的衣橱。
BLUEBELLS
SPRING BLOOM OUT OF SYNC
With deep blue colours and an enchanting perfume, bluebell woods in full bloom are one of most magical experiences associated with springtime in the UK. But the sight may become rarer in the future. With a warming climate, the bluebells, along with other countryside plant species, may have a hard time. Under the projection of global temperatures rising to 2°C, large parts of southern and central England are likely to be become inhospitable for bluebells.
A member of the lily family, the bluebell overwinters as a bulb and emerges in the spring to flower between mid-April and late May. Temperature controls plant development and flowering. In the spring and early summer, drought can reduce their growth. Warmer temperatures can impede germination and can shift timing of flowering to become out of sync with the seasons. A study based on 200,000 observations of seasonal cycles recorded by nature enthusiasts for the Woodland Trust revealed that the first leafing or flowering dates for bluebells and 21 other plant species across the UK were affected by warmer spring temperatures. For each 1°C temperature increase, the plants were leafing or flowering between three and eight days earlier than they used to.
Plants have an optimum time and conditions for developing leaves and flowers which give them the best chance to grow and reproduce. With warmer temperatures and drier conditions, their future may be compromised. Bluebells take advantage of the open canopy in early spring, growing and flowering before the canopy closes over as the leaves of beech, oak and other trees expand. If bluebells cannot time their growth and development to coincide with the changing seasons, they may lose out.
The native British bluebell is already under threat from pollution, the destruction of woodland habitat through urban development, and the invasion of the introduced Spanish bluebell varieties that are less colourful and fragrant than the native flowers, but more vigorous. If we do not limit the rise in global temperatures, climate change could make our beloved native bluebells only a countryside memory in parts of the UK.
蓝铃
春天开花不同步
深蓝色和迷人的香水，盛开的风信子树林是英国春天最神奇的体验之一。但未来这种景象可能会变得更加罕见。随着气候变暖，风信子以及其他乡村植物物种可能会遇到困难。在全球气温上升至 2°C 的预测下，英格兰南部和中部的大部分地区可能会变得不适合蓝铃花生长。
作为百合科的一员，风信子以球茎的形式越冬，并在春季出现，在 4 月中旬至 5 月下旬之间开花。温度控制植物的发育和开花。在春季和初夏，干旱会减少它们的生长。较高的温度会阻碍发芽，并可能改变开花时间，使其与季节不同步。一项基于自然爱好者为 Woodland Trust 记录的 200,000 次季节性周期观察的研究表明，第一次生叶或开花英国各地的风信子和其他 21 种植物物种的日期受到春季气温升高的影响。温度每升高 1°C，植物的生叶或开花时间就会比它们提前 3 到 8 天。习惯了。
植物有一个最佳的时间和条件来发育叶子和花朵，这给了它们最好的生长和繁殖机会。带保温杯温度和干燥条件，它们的未来可能会受到影响。风信子在早春利用开放的树冠，在树冠关闭之前随着山毛榉、橡树和其他树木的叶子扩张而生长和开花。如果风铃草的生长发育不能与季节变化同步，它们可能会败。
英国本土的风信子已经受到污染、城市发展对林地栖息地的破坏以及引进的西班牙风信子品种的入侵的威胁，这些品种的色彩和香味不如本土花卉，但更有活力。如果我们不限制全球气温的上升，气候变化可能会使我们心爱的本土风铃草成为英国部分地区的乡村记忆。
BUMBLEBEE
TOO WARM FOR THE FUZZY POLLINATORS
Among the most important pollinators, bumblebees can generate heat while flying and their fuzzy bodies act as a warm coat. With these special adaptations, they thrive in cold climates. But they are susceptible to overheating and a warming world is pushing them to temperatures they cannot tolerate.
A recent study of over half a million observations of 66 bumblebee species around the world, going back for more than a century, shows where the insects used to live and where they are found today – with evidence of rapid and widespread declines. The researchers discovered that the chances of spotting a bumblebee in any given area in North America have dropped by almost half from 1901-1974 to 2000-2014 and by 17% in Europe on average. Their disappearance from a region means they have either moved elsewhere or died. Bumblebees have been hit the hardest in warmer places, including Mexico and Spain, where they cannot cope with increasing temperatures. But even in relatively cool regions such as the UK, bumblebees have also been declining.
While some bumblebees have responded to the hotter temperatures by colonising cooler, more northerly regions, this has not been enough to compensate for the losses. The extent of their range expansion is far smaller than the extent of range lost, which could push some bumblebee species towards extinction.
Approximately 250 species of bumblebees exist in the world, and climate change is not the only factor driving their widespread decline. Bumblebees face multiple threats to their existence, including the destruction of habitat due to intensive agriculture and land-use changes, the spread of diseases, the use of harmful pesticides such as neonicotinoids, and the release of non-native bees for commercial pollination. For example, great yellow bumblebees used to be found throughout the UK. In the last century their population has declined by 80% because of climate change, pesticides, the loss of flower-rich meadows and the intensification of farming. They are now restricted to the northern Highlands and the islands of Scotland.
Bumblebees pollinate many types of wild plants as well as agricultural crops such as tomatoes, aubergines and blueberries. The loss of the important ecosystem services they provide threatens food security and overall biodiversity. If we do not act now to limit global temperatures, climate change could be the final straw for some bumblebee species
熊蜂
对模糊传粉者来说太热了
在最重要的传粉媒介中，大黄蜂可以在飞行时产生热量，它们毛茸茸的身体就像一件温暖的外套。通过这些特殊的适应，它们在寒冷的气候中茁壮成长。但它们容易过热和变暖的世界正在将他们推向他们无法忍受的温度。
最近一项对全球 66 种大黄蜂超过 50 万次观测的研究可以追溯到一个多世纪前，该研究显示了这些昆虫过去生活的地方以及它们今天的发现地——有证据表明它们正在迅速而广泛地减少。研究人员发现，从 1901-1974 年到 2000-2014 年，在北美任何特定地区发现大黄蜂的机会几乎下降了一半，在欧洲平均下降了 17%。他们从一个地区消失意味着他们要么搬到别处，要么死去。大黄蜂在温暖的地方受到的打击最为严重，包括墨西哥
和西班牙，他们无法应对不断上升的气温。但即使在英国等相对凉爽的地区，大黄蜂也在减少。
虽然一些大黄蜂通过在较冷、更偏北的地区定居来应对较热的温度，但这还不足以弥补损失。它们范围扩大的程度远小于范围丧失的程度，这可能会使一些大黄蜂物种走向灭绝。
世界上大约有 250 种大黄蜂，气候变化并不是导致大黄蜂普遍衰退的唯一因素。大黄蜂的生存面临多重威胁，包括由于集约化农业和土地利用变化导致栖息地破坏、疾病传播、使用新烟碱类等有害杀虫剂，以及释放非本地蜜蜂进行商业授粉。例如，大黄蜂曾经是
遍布英国。在上个世纪，由于气候变化、杀虫剂、鲜花盛开的草地的丧失和农业集约化，他们的人口减少了 80%。它们现在仅限于北部高地和苏格兰群岛。
大黄蜂为多种野生植物以及西红柿、茄子和蓝莓等农作物授粉。它们提供的重要生态系统服务的丧失威胁到粮食安全和整体生物多样性。如果我们现在不采取行动限制全球气温，气候变化可能成为一些大黄蜂物种的最后一根稻草
EMPEROR PENGUIN
THE SLIPPERY SLOPE TO EXTINCTION
Emperor penguins, the largest of all living penguin species, are uniquely adapted to living in the extreme conditions of Antarctica. They require stable, fast ice for at least nine months of the year as a platform to mate, incubate their eggs, raise their chicks, and replace their feathers during the annual moult. Although there is uncertainty about the magnitude of future sea ice decline, the loss of Antarctic sea ice due to rising global temperatures is now almost certain.
Emperor penguins are vulnerable to different kinds of change in sea ice. Their breeding success, and therefore the continued existence of their populations, depends on ‘Goldilocks’ conditions – the sea ice being just right for their needs.
The birds not only require gaps in the sea ice to access feeding grounds, but also a thick, stable platform for raising their chicks. Very extensive sea ice cover means adults must travel longer distances to reach the open water and their prey for feeding. This requires far more energy, which leads to reduced breeding success. Too little sea ice also has a dramatic impact, such as when sea ice forms late in autumn or breaks up too early in spring. At such times, the chicks have not had time to develop and acquire the waterproof plumage they need to survive in the cold Southern Ocean.
Although emperor penguins can relocate to other breeding sites, this will not protect them very far into the future, given projected decreases in sea ice. Emperor penguins are not very agile, so relocating onto land is not an easy option.
Only humans can change the fate of this iconic species.
Scientists have modelled future changes in emperor penguin populations under different climate scenarios. If greenhouse gas emissions continue rising as they are today, the total number of emperor penguins will decrease dramatically by 2100. All known colonies will decline and most will be quasi-extinct by the end of the century.
But global climate policy can help to safeguard the future of these icons on ice. If governments restrict greenhouse gas emissions now, average global temperature rises could be limited to 1.5°C, securing the future of emperor penguin populations.
帝企鹅
走向灭绝的滑坡
帝企鹅是所有现存企鹅物种中体型最大的，它们特别适合生活在南极洲的极端条件下。 它们一年中至少有九个月需要稳定的固定冰作为交配平台，孵化它们的卵，抚养它们的小鸡，并在每年的换羽期间更换它们的羽毛。 尽管未来海冰减少的幅度存在不确定性，但现在几乎可以肯定的是，全球气温上升导致南极海冰减少。
帝企鹅很容易受到海冰各种变化的影响。 它们的繁殖成功，以及它们种群的持续存在，取决于“适得其反”的条件——海冰恰好满足它们的需求。
这些鸟类不仅需要海冰中的缝隙才能进入觅食地，还需要一个厚实、稳定的平台来养育它们的雏鸟。 非常广泛的海冰覆盖意味着成年人必须走更远的距离才能到达开阔水域和它们的猎物。 这需要更多的能量，从而减少
繁殖成功。 海冰太少也会产生巨大影响，例如海冰在深秋形成或在春季过早破裂。 在这种时候，雏鸟还没有时间发育和获得在寒冷的南大洋中生存所需的防水羽毛。
虽然帝企鹅可以迁移到其他繁殖地，但考虑到海冰预计会减少，这不会在很远的将来保护它们。 帝企鹅不是很敏捷，因此迁移到陆地上并不是一个容易的选择。
只有人类才能改变这个标志性物种的命运。
科学家们模拟了不同气候情景下帝企鹅种群的未来变化。 如果温室气体排放像今天这样继续上升，到 2100 年帝企鹅的总数将急剧减少。到本世纪末几乎灭绝。
但全球气候政策可以帮助保护这些冰上偶像的未来。 如果政府现在限制温室气体排放，全球平均气温上升可能会限制在 1.5°C，从而确保帝企鹅种群的未来。
SNOW LEOPARD
ON THE EDGE OF THE WORLD
Highly adapted to harsh and cold conditions, snow leopards have roamed the high, remote mountains of central and south Asia for more than two million years. Currently threatened by poaching, habitat destruction and conflicts with people over livestock, it is estimated there are as few as 4,000 snow leopards left, across 12 countries.
Snow leopards are facing a major emerging threat in the form of climate change. Warming temperatures are altering the elusive felines’ mountainous climates. Snow leopard habitat is projected to decline by 23% by 2070 if we don’t take global action to cut greenhouse gas emissions. In countries such as Bhutan and Nepal, habitat loss will exceed 80%.
The increases in temperature and rainfall are expected to shift the tree line higher up the mountains, particularly in the Greater Himalaya region. The upward movement of the tree line drives the growth of plant species that do not provide ideal habitat and grazing for the snow leopard’s prey. Furthermore, as the forest habitat expands at the expense of alpine meadows, the change
might benefit other predators, better adapted to the forest than snow leopards – such as wolves and common leopards. This could result in intense competition for food and resources, with the snow leopard at risk of losing out.
Additionally, warmer conditions risk heightening other threats, such as enabling people and their livestock to move higher into the mountains, which will set the stage for increased conflict between snow leopards and humans. In some areas, people’s livestock will directly compete with the leopard’s prey, such as blue sheep, for grazing the remaining small pastures. As their prey is displaced, hungry snow leopards will increasingly turn to livestock, which places them at greater risk of being killed by herders.
The cascading consequences of climate change leave snow leopards in a vulnerable position. Researchers have identified three areas that account for about 35% of snow leopards’ habitat in the high mountains of Asia and can act as climate refuges. To secure these resilient geographical areas and a long-term future for snow leopards, we must curb carbon emissions. And we must find ways for people and snow leopards to coexist in the ever-smaller habitats these elusive cats will rely on.
雪豹
在世界的边缘
雪豹高度适应严酷和寒冷的环境，已经在中亚和南亚偏远的高山上漫游了超过 200 万年。 目前受到偷猎、栖息地破坏和与人争夺牲畜的冲突的威胁，据估计，分布在 12 个国家的雪豹只剩下 4,000 只。
雪豹正面临以气候变化形式出现的重大威胁。 变暖的温度正在改变难以捉摸的猫科动物的山区气候。 如果我们不采取全球行动减少温室气体排放，预计到 2070 年雪豹栖息地将减少 23%。 在诸如不丹和尼泊尔的栖息地丧失将超过80%。
预计气温和降雨量的增加将使树木线向山上移动，特别是在大喜马拉雅地区。 树线的向上移动推动了植物物种的生长，这些植物物种不能为雪豹的猎物提供理想的栖息地和放牧。 此外，随着森林栖息地的扩大以高山草甸为代价，变化可能有利于其他比雪豹更适应森林的捕食者，例如狼和普通豹。 这可能会导致对食物和资源的激烈竞争，雪豹有被淘汰的风险。
此外，气候变暖可能会加剧其他威胁，例如使人和他们的牲畜能够迁移到更高的山区，这将为雪豹与人类之间的冲突增加埋下伏笔。 在一些地区，人们的牲畜将直接与豹子的猎物（例如蓝羊）争夺剩下的小牧场。 随着它们的猎物流离失所，饥饿的雪豹将越来越多地转向牲畜，这使它们面临更大的被牧民杀死的风险。
气候变化的连锁反应使雪豹处于脆弱的境地。 研究人员确定了三个区域，它们约占亚洲高山雪豹栖息地的 35%，可以作为气候避难所。 为了保护这些有弹性的地理区域和雪豹的长远未来，我们必须遏制碳排放。 我们必须想方设法让人类和雪豹在这些难以捉摸的猫科动物赖以生存的越来越小的栖息地共存。
LEATHERBACK TURTLE
SURVIVAL IN THE HEAT OF THE SAND
Turtles and tortoises have been around for about 220 million years. They once lived with dinosaurs. Today, more than half of the 360 species of turtles and tortoises are threatened with extinction. These ancient reptiles are declining rapidly due to habitat destruction, poaching, plastic pollution, accidental capture in fishing gear, and now climate change. Six of the seven marine turtle species are threatened – and leatherback turtles are no exception.
Found in the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific oceans, leatherback turtles are the largest and deepest-diving of all living turtles. Adults can weigh more than half a tonne.
But these gentle giants are sensitive to the smallest change in temperature. The sex of a marine turtle is determined during the incubation of the egg on the nesting beach where it was laid, and the mix of males and females depends on the temperature of the sand. Hotter sand – which is consistent with global
warming – leads to a disproportionately higher number of female turtles.
There is already evidence that a major nesting site in north-western Costa Rica produced 90% female leatherback hatchlings. If temperatures climb too high, things get even worse and eggs fail to hatch. This can threaten the survival of
leatherbacks and other turtle populations.
Furthermore, rising sea levels, higher tides and increased storm events, which are more likely as the climate changes, wash away turtle nests and permanently destroy nesting beaches in the long term. Without anywhere to lay their eggs, the turtles cannot reproduce.
Turtles have shown extraordinary resilience through time. They have experienced climatic changes and adapted through evolution. In the future, they could once again respond to a changing climate by choosing more favourable nesting sites and adjusting their breeding time to when the weather is cooler. However, the pace of climate change is likely to be faster
than turtles can adapt to, unless we act now and limit temperature rises.
棱皮龟
在炎热的沙地中生存
海龟和乌龟已经存在了大约 2.2 亿年。 他们曾经和恐龙一起生活。 今天，360 种海龟和陆龟中有一半以上面临灭绝的威胁。 由于栖息地破坏、偷猎、塑料污染、意外事故，这些古老的爬行动物正在迅速减少
捕获渔具，现在气候变化。 七种海龟中有六种受到威胁——棱皮龟也不例外。
棱皮龟分布于大西洋、印度洋和太平洋，是所有现存海龟中最大、潜水最深的。 成年人体重可达半吨以上。
但是这些温柔的巨人对温度的最小变化都很敏感。 海龟的性别是在它产卵的筑巢海滩上孵化时决定的，雄性和雌性的混合取决于沙子的温度。 更热的沙子——这与全球一致变暖——导致雌性海龟数量不成比例地增加。
已有证据表明，哥斯达黎加西北部的一个主要筑巢地产生了 90% 的雌性棱皮龟幼龟。 如果温度升得太高，情况会变得更糟，卵无法孵化。 这可能会威胁到生存
棱皮龟和其他海龟种群。
此外，海平面上升、潮汐上涨和风暴事件增加（随着气候变化更有可能）会冲走海龟巢穴，并从长远来看永久性地摧毁筑巢海滩。 没有地方产卵，海龟就无法繁殖。
随着时间的推移，海龟表现出了非凡的韧性。 他们经历了气候变化并通过进化来适应。 将来，它们可以通过选择更有利的筑巢地点并将繁殖时间调整到天气凉爽的时候来再次应对不断变化的气候。 然而，气候变化的步伐可能会更快
海龟无法适应，除非我们现在采取行动并限制温度升高。
DARWIN’S FROG
SICK WITH CLIMATE CHANGE
Named after Charles Darwin, who encountered them in 1834, Darwin’s frogs are only found in the temperate Austral forests and wetlands of Chile and Argentina. They display a unique behaviour not recorded in any other amphibian species, in which the males brood the offspring in their vocal sacs.
Unfortunately, in recent years Darwin’s frogs have been disappearing – in part because of the destruction of their old-growth forest homes, but also because of a deadly emerging infectious disease and climate change. Global warming is predicted to reduce their existing habitat, while new areas that might become suitable will be too far for Darwin’s frogs to reach naturally.
Northern Darwin’s frogs have not been seen in the wild since 1981. They are iconic examples of the global amphibian crisis, with more than 40% of all amphibian species threatened with extinction.
In addition to the loss of habitat, rising temperatures are creating favourable conditions for deadly diseases that can push more amphibians to the brink. Darwin’s frogs have been exposed to the chytrid fungus (Bd), a disease that has driven the declines of at least 500 amphibian species across the world, including 90 species now presumed extinct. This is the greatest recorded loss of biodiversity attributable to a disease.
With climate change, things are predicted to get even worse. While frog species that are adapted to living in cool climates do not tolerate increased heat, the chytrid fungus does not mind the higher temperatures and can survive. The frogs face an even more unequal battle to survive in the face of the powerful pathogen.
Other diseases fare well in a warming world. In the UK, researchers demonstrated that higher temperatures facilitate the propagation of the deadly ranavirus disease that impacts common frogs.
If carbon emissions are not reduced, it is projected that disease outbreaks will become more severe and will occur over larger areas in the UK – and over extended seasons, starting as early as April and lasting until October. In the spring, ranavirus outbreaks can kill a large number of tadpoles, which eventually leads to the disappearance of entire frog populations. For every 1°C rise in temperature, the proportion of common frogs that died because of ranavirus disease rose by more than 3%.
达尔文的青蛙
厌倦了气候变化
以 1834 年遇到它们的查尔斯达尔文命名，达尔文的
青蛙仅存在于智利和阿根廷的温带南方森林和湿地中。 它们表现出一种在任何其他两栖动物物种中都没有记录的独特行为，其中雄性在它们的声囊中孵育后代。
不幸的是，近年来达尔文的青蛙一直在消失——部分原因是它们古老的森林家园遭到破坏，但也因为一种致命的新兴传染病和气候变化。 全球变暖预计会减少它们现有的栖息地，而可能变得合适的新区域对于达尔文蛙来说距离太远，无法自然到达。
自 1981 年以来，北达尔文的青蛙就再也没有出现在野外。它们是全球两栖动物危机的标志性例子，超过 40% 的两栖动物物种面临灭绝威胁。
除了栖息地的丧失之外，气温上升还为致命疾病创造了有利条件，这些疾病可能会将更多两栖动物推向濒临灭绝的边缘。 达尔文的青蛙曾接触过壶菌 (Bd)，这种疾病已导致全世界至少 500 种两栖动物数量减少，其中 90 种现在被认为已经灭绝。 这是有记录以来因疾病造成的最大生物多样性损失。
随着气候变化，预计情况会变得更糟。 虽然适应凉爽气候的青蛙物种不能忍受高温，但壶菌不介意更高的温度并且可以生存。 面对强大的病原体，青蛙为了生存而面临着一场更加不平等的战斗。
其他疾病在变暖的世界中表现良好。 在英国，研究人员
表明较高的温度会促进影响普通青蛙的致命的雷病毒病的传播。
如果不减少碳排放，预计疾病爆发将变得更加严重，并将在英国的更大范围内发生——并且会在更长的季节内发生，最早从 4 月开始，一直持续到 10 月。 春季，蛙病毒爆发可以杀死大量蝌蚪，最终导致整个青蛙种群消失。 温度每升高 1°C，因雷病毒病死亡的普通青蛙比例就会上升 3% 以上。
WARM-WATER CORAL REEFS
LIFE OR DEATH AT HALF A DEGREE
Warm-water tropical coral reefs support some of the most biodiverse ecosystems on the planet, providing shelter, food and spawning grounds to thousands of marine species. In the last 30 years, half of the planet’s tropical coral reefs have disappeared because of pollution, overfishing and unsustainable coastal development. More recently they have been affected by ocean acidification and extreme temperatures driven by climate change, which are leading to large-scale and back-to-back coral bleaching events.
IPCC projections show that even if we limit temperature rises to 1.5°C, coral reefs will suffer significant losses of area and local extinctions – with a further decline of 70-90% by 2050. At 2°C, more than 99% of corals will be lost.
Named for their antler-like appearance, and thought to have evolved 55 to 65 million years ago, staghorn corals are particularly sensitive to warming conditions. They account for approximately 160 species worldwide.
Staghorn corals, like other stony corals, have a symbiotic relationship with microscopic algae called zooxanthellae. Corals and their algae partners are extremely vulnerable to small temperature changes. Warming of just 1°C is enough to disrupt their delicate relationship. The algae begin producing toxic, reactive oxygen molecules during photosynthesis. To survive, the corals expel the
zooxanthellae from their tissues. The algae give corals their colourful appearance and once they are gone the corals appear white, or ‘bleached’.
If the water temperature returns to normal within a few weeks, bleached corals can regain their algae partners and recover. But each bleaching event weakens the overall health of the coral, and if high temperatures persist,or happen too frequently, the corals die.
When coral is lost, many finfish and shellfish species disappear as well. Millions of people who depend on reef fish and ecotourism for food security and income are affected.
Researchers have identified 50 resilient coral reef areas in seven countries that have the best chance of surviving climate change and may support overall coral regeneration in the future. However, the survival of these last refuges is entirely dependent on the goals of the Paris Agreement being met. They will not be spared if warming goes beyond the 1.5°C limit.
暖水珊瑚礁
半度生死攸关
温水热带珊瑚礁支持一些最具生物多样性的珊瑚礁
地球上的生态系统，为成千上万的海洋物种提供庇护所、食物和产卵场。 在过去的 30 年里，由于污染、过度捕捞和不可持续的沿海开发，地球上一半的热带珊瑚礁已经消失。 最近，它们受到气候变化驱动的海洋酸化和极端温度的影响，这导致大规模和背靠背的珊瑚白化事件。
IPCC 预测表明，即使我们将温度上升限制在 1.5°C，珊瑚礁的面积和局部灭绝也将遭受重大损失——到 2050 年将进一步下降 70-90%。在 2°C 时，超过 99% 的珊瑚 会迷路。
鹿角珊瑚以其鹿角般的外观命名，并被认为在 55 至 6500 万年前进化，对变暖条件特别敏感。 它们在全世界约有 160 种。
与其他石珊瑚一样，鹿角珊瑚与称为虫黄藻的微观藻类具有共生关系。 珊瑚及其藻类伙伴极易受到温度微小变化的影响。 仅 1°C 的升温就足以破坏它们之间微妙的关系。 藻类在光合作用过程中开始产生有毒的活性氧分子。 为了生存，珊瑚将虫黄藻从它们的组织中排出。 藻类赋予珊瑚五颜六色的外观，一旦它们消失，珊瑚就会呈现白色或“漂白”。
如果水温在几周内恢复正常，漂白的珊瑚就可以重新找回藻类伙伴并恢复健康。 但每次白化事件都会削弱珊瑚的整体健康状况，如果高温持续存在或发生得太频繁，珊瑚就会死亡。
当珊瑚消失时，许多有鳍鱼类和贝类物种也会消失。 数百万依靠珊瑚鱼和生态旅游来保障粮食安全和收入的人受到影响。
研究人员已经在 7 个国家确定了 50 个有弹性的珊瑚礁区域，这些区域最有可能在气候变化中幸存下来，并可能支持未来的整体珊瑚再生。 然而，这些最后的避难所的生存完全取决于《巴黎协定》目标的实现。 如果升温超过 1.5°C 的限制，它们将无法幸免。
HIPPOPOTAMUS
AN ECOSYSTEM ENGINEER OUT OF WATER
Found in rivers, lakes and wetlands in many parts of sub-Saharan Africa, common hippopotamus populations have been declining in the last few decades. Of the 36 countries where the hippo is known to occur, 20 have decreasing populations, seven have populations of unknown status, and three have experienced recent extinctions.
Hippos are known as ecosystem engineers, exerting a profound influence on the freshwater systems they depend on for their survival. Today they face multiple threats to their existence, including habitat destruction, poaching for meat and ivory, and persecution due to conflicts with people.
In Zimbabwe for example, human settlements and agricultural activities have encroached into the wetlands, lakes, rivers and ponds that hippos use. The construction of dams to meet increased water demands has also changed the structure of river systems, affecting the availability of shallow pools. At night, hippos graze on open spaces and can find themselves on agricultural lands. The increased proximity between people and hippos often results in conflicts.
Like many other African wildlife species, hippos are now threatened even further by climate change. Rising temperatures, prolonged periods of drought, erratic rainfall and high surface evapotranspiration reduce water levels and quality. High temperatures pose a threat to hippos. As large, primarily aquatic animals they are not well adapted to high temperatures out of water, making them vulnerable to drought conditions that can cause severe dehydration and even death.
Climate change is likely to deepen conflicts between people and hippos as the competition for scarcer water resources intensifies, or when unpredictable weather patterns bring the animals and humans closer. Unusually heavy rains in 2019 caused Kenya’s Lake Naivasha to swell and grow to its largest size in nearly a century, flooding the land hippos rely on for grazing. The animals were pushed closer to the farms and houses surrounding the lake and found themselves in the same shallow waters that fishermen use, sparking deadly conflict.
Throughout the hippos’ range, climate change is adding stress to freshwater systems that are already vulnerable because of deforestation and waterintensive agriculture. Since 1993, Tanzania’s Great Ruaha River has ceased to flow during the dry season, affecting hippos and other species. Other rivers experience a similar pattern, and their resilience may not last for much longer with the combined impacts of accelerating climate change and continued water removal.
河马
离开水的生态系统工程师
在撒哈拉以南非洲许多地区的河流、湖泊和湿地中发现的普通河马种群在过去几十年里一直在减少。 在已知有河马出没的 36 个国家中，有 20 个国家的种群数量正在减少，7 个国家的种群数量状况不明，3 个国家近期已经灭绝。
河马被称为生态系统工程师，对它们赖以生存的淡水系统产生了深远的影响。 如今，它们的生存面临着多重威胁，包括栖息地遭到破坏、偷猎肉类和象牙，以及因与人发生冲突而遭受迫害。
例如在津巴布韦，人类住区和农业活动已经侵占了河马使用的湿地、湖泊、河流和池塘。 为满足日益增长的用水需求建造水坝也改变了河流系统的结构，影响了浅水池的可用性。 晚上，河马在空地上吃草，也可以在农田里觅食。 人与河马之间的距离越来越近，经常会导致冲突。
与许多其他非洲野生动物物种一样，河马现在受到气候变化的进一步威胁。 气温上升、干旱持续时间延长、降雨不稳定和地表蒸散量高会降低水位和水质。 高温对河马构成威胁。 作为大型水生动物，它们不能很好地适应离开水的高温，使它们容易受到干旱条件的影响，从而导致严重脱水甚至死亡。
随着对稀缺水资源的竞争加剧，或者当不可预测的天气模式使动物和人类更加接近时，气候变化可能会加深人与河马之间的冲突。 2019 年异常的大雨导致肯尼亚的奈瓦沙湖膨胀并达到近一个世纪以来的最大面积，淹没了河马赖以放牧的土地。 这些动物被推到离湖周围的农场和房屋更近的地方，发现自己身处渔民使用的同一浅水区，引发了致命的冲突。
在河马的整个活动范围内，气候变化给淡水系统增加了压力，而淡水系统已经因森林砍伐和水资源密集型农业而变得脆弱。 自 1993 年以来，坦桑尼亚的大鲁阿哈河在旱季停止流动，影响了河马和其他物种。 其他河流也有类似的模式，在加速气候变化和持续排水的综合影响下，它们的恢复力可能不会持续太久。
ARABICA COFFEE
THE LAST SHOT
Millions of people love waking up to the smell of freshly brewed coffee, but the true wake-up call is the urgent need to tackle climate change.
Coffee producers grow two main species, arabica and robusta, with the former accounting for about 60% of global production. Arabica thrives at average annual temperatures of between 18°C and 22°C and can tolerate temperatures up to 24°C. But the species does not cope well with warming conditions, low or unpredictable rainfall, or extreme events.
The wild species Coffea arabica in Ethiopia is threatened by climate change and is projected to decline by 50-80% by 2080. This could lead to genetic diversity loss for this important crop.
Exposure to elevated temperatures damages coffee plants, which become more vulnerable to pests and diseases that are thriving under a warming climate. For example, higher temperatures, intense rain and persistent humidity create a welcoming environment for the coffee leaf rust fungus that reduces the ability of plants to photosynthesize and produce coffee berries.
A study projects that by 2050, the total amount of land suitable for arabica coffee production in Latin America will fall by up to 88%. Coffee is one of the world’s most traded products and those losses will affect the livelihoods of 100 million people.
Cooler, high-elevation locations are expected to become more suitable for coffee production in the future. However, this does not guarantee that coffee plants will do well there because they not only need the right climate but also pollinating insects. The problem is that climate change has an impact on the geographical distribution of bees. As a result, they might not be in the right place to pollinate coffee. The average number of bee species in areas suitable for coffee is projected to drop by as much as 18% by 2050.
The loss of pollination services is bad news for coffee production and agriculture in general, but there is a glimmer of hope. All areas that will be suitable for coffee are projected to retain at least five bee species. So if we can limit the increase in global temperatures to less than 1.5°C, we may have a last shot at saving the coffee culture that supports livelihoods across the globe, and maintains the vital social relationships created by the shared enjoyment of a cup of coffee.
阿拉比卡咖啡
最后一枪
数以百万计的人喜欢在现煮咖啡的香气中醒来，但真正的警钟是应对气候变化的迫切需要。
咖啡生产商种植两种主要品种，阿拉比卡咖啡和罗布斯塔咖啡，前者约占全球产量的 60%。 阿拉比卡咖啡在 18°C 至 22°C 的年平均温度下生长旺盛，最高可耐受 24°C 的温度。 但该物种无法很好地应对变暖条件、降雨量少或不可预测或极端事件。
埃塞俄比亚的野生小粒咖啡受到气候变化的威胁，预计到 2080 年将减少 50-80%。这可能导致这种重要作物的遗传多样性丧失。
暴露在高温下会损害咖啡树，它们变得更容易受到在气候变暖下茁壮成长的害虫和疾病的侵害。 例如，较高的温度、强降雨和持续的湿度为咖啡叶锈菌创造了一个适宜的环境，从而降低了植物进行光合作用和生产咖啡浆果的能力。
一项研究预测，到 2050 年，拉丁美洲适合阿拉比卡咖啡生产的土地总量将减少多达 88%。 咖啡是世界上交易量最大的产品之一，这些损失将影响 1 亿人的生计。
预计未来凉爽、高海拔地区将更适合咖啡生产。 然而，这并不能保证咖啡树在那里长得很好，因为它们不仅需要合适的气候，还需要授粉昆虫。 问题是气候变化对蜜蜂的地理分布有影响。 因此，它们可能不在正确的地方为咖啡授粉。 适宜地区平均蜂种数
到 2050 年，咖啡的消费量预计将下降 18%。
授粉服务的丧失对咖啡生产来说是个坏消息，
农业一般，但有一线希望。 所有适合种植咖啡的地区预计将保留至少五种蜜蜂。 因此，如果我们能够将全球气温上升幅度限制在 1.5°C 以下，我们就有可能最后一次拯救支持全球生计的咖啡文化，并维持因共同享受一杯咖啡而建立的重要社会关系。 咖啡。
BLACK-HEADED SQUIRREL MONKEY
TINY HOME AT RISK
The Brazilian Amazon has a high diversity of primate species that are found nowhere else on Earth. Primates play a critical role in maintaining biodiversity: by spreading the seeds of trees, they contribute to the growth of forests, helping with carbon storage and the regulation of global temperatures. But warming temperatures endanger the very existence of several species.
Climate change is predicted to make the homes of many Amazon primates inhospitable. In the face of this new reality, they will have to adapt or move to more suitable areas. In many cases, there might be little other habitat available – a situation often made worse by deforestation. Primates face challenges as they try to disperse, encountering barriers such as rivers and roads or discovering deforestation has left them isolated from the nearest habitat. If they are not able to find new homes, they will be forced to remain in deteriorating habitats and will be exposed to temperature and rainfall conditions for which they are not best adapted. If they cannot acclimatise, they face a grim future and eventually local extinction.
More than any other species, the black-headed squirrel monkey represents the struggles of Amazon primates in the face of climate change. It has the smallest known geographical distribution of all neotropical primates, residing in just one location within an area of 870 sq km in the Mamirauá Sustainable Development Reserve in Brazil.
The monkeys live in a floodplain forested ecosystem, called ‘várzea’, which is seasonally flooded by nutrient-rich white-water rivers. The monkeys’ home is expected to be reduced by almost 100% due to a combination of increased water levels, increased temperatures and extreme flooding events driven by climate change.
Because the whole population live in the same floodplain, a single extreme seasonal flooding event could wipe out the entire range of the species. Habitat loss is expected to result in a decline of at least 50% of this monkey’s population.
The future of the black-headed squirrel monkey and other Amazon primates depends on protecting wildlife corridors that allow animals to find new homes, but also on urgent climate action to limit temperature increases that will give primates time to adapt to changing environments.
黑头松鼠猴
小房子有风险
巴西亚马逊拥有地球上其他任何地方都找不到的高度多样化的灵长类物种。 灵长类动物在维持生物多样性方面发挥着关键作用：通过传播树木的种子，它们促进了森林的生长，有助于碳储存和全球温度的调节。 但是变暖的温度危及一些物种的生存。
预计气候变化将使许多亚马逊灵长类动物的家园变得荒凉。 面对这种新的现实，他们将不得不适应或转移到更合适的地区。 在许多情况下，可能几乎没有其他可用的栖息地——这种情况往往因森林砍伐而变得更糟。 灵长类动物在试图分散时面临挑战，遇到河流和道路等障碍，或者发现森林砍伐使它们与最近的栖息地隔绝。 如果他们找不到新家，他们将被迫留在不断恶化的栖息地，并将暴露在他们无法最适应的温度和降雨条件下。 如果他们不能适应环境，他们将面临严峻的未来并最终在当地灭绝。
与其他任何物种相比，黑头松鼠猴更能代表亚马逊灵长类动物在气候变化面前的挣扎。 在所有新热带灵长类动物中，它的已知地理分布最小，仅栖息在巴西马米拉乌可持续发展保护区 870 平方公里范围内的一处。
这些猴子生活在一个被称为“várzea”的泛滥平原森林生态系统中，该生态系统季节性地被营养丰富的白水河流淹没。 由于水位上升、气温升高以及气候变化导致的极端洪水事件，猴子的家园预计将减少近 100%。
由于整个种群都生活在同一个洪泛区，一次极端的季节性洪水事件可能会消灭整个物种。 栖息地的丧失预计将导致这只猴子的数量至少减少 50%。
黑头松鼠猴和其他亚马逊灵长类动物的未来取决于保护允许动物找到新家的野生动物走廊，但也取决于采取紧急气候行动来限制温度升高，这将使灵长类动物有时间适应不断变化的环境。